TCS Roundtable: Carlos Rodon is awesome, let's talk about Carlos Rodon

In light of Carlos Rodon melting faces Wednesday night against the Royals and striking out nine batters in four shutout innings, the only responsible thing was to check on how all of us were doing emotionally.

James: Rodon! Rodon!

Rodon!

Carlos Rodon was cartoonishly overpowering. He was a real word manifestation of the type of overpowering performance I envision whenever people hyperbolically use terms like “unhittable slider” or “80 pitch.” He was so good and so dominant, it completely obscured things he did noticeably not well, such as throw a passable changeup consistently, or all the times he missed the glove with his fastball by a foot. His slider is untouchable. It’s got two-plane break and can be tweaked between 82-90 mph, with both a stutter action and a huge sweeper. It’s just this singularly overwhelming tool that drapes over his flaws like a luxurious, velvet blanket.

Rodon!

Nick: My cousin was at this game with his family and texted me something like, “RODON!”

I didn’t get to watch the game, but for all that he was missing with his fastball as you say, he didn’t walk anybody and only allowed 4 hits while striking out 9. Process is more important to me than results, especially at this stage, but I’m just going to go ahead and really enjoy this outing.

I think cognitively when we have a given and then some weaknesses, you spend so long focusing on the weaknesses / uncertainties you start to underrate the strengths. I frequently use the example of a 25-man roster fantasy baseball draft. Say you start by drafting Stanton and Cano - great! And then two hours later, it’s round 23 and your last couple of picks have been David Peralta and Devon Travis and you’re thinking, “Man, I only have terrible players on my team.”

Everybody has just been saying, “Yeah, Rodon’s slider is super amazing, but he needs to work on X and Y.” They’re absolutely right, but let’s not forget what an elite breaking pitch can do.

James: An elite breaking pitch with about three different forms, at least. I may have overstated the fastball issues, since everyone else the day after called it better than usual. As much as he had a half-dozen Daniel Webb-style misses, he spotted when he needed to, and kept hitters honest on his homewrecker slider.

While we’re at it. Is there a name for Rodon’s slider? I nominate “The Homewrecker” for the sweeper form.

Nick: It is cool that he can do so many different things with it. When R.A. Dickey was at his best he was able to have pitches do like 8 or 9 different things all out of the same arm slot / arm speed, which obviously yielded excellent results.

So after the 9K game, we have seen people start comparing him to Bryant and saying he absolutely has to be in the rotation to start the year. Rodon could probably survive at the majors, but I’m not really surprised that he dominated a Spring Training Royals lineup with his slider. I feel like he could do that 2 years ago. Bryant is a full year ahead of him in terms of pro ball experience, and it sounds like they won’t need a 5th starter until Sale gets back.

And, as much as I have fretted and wrung my hands about Danks and Noesi this offseason, I still think it’s worth seeing what they can do a little more before you pull the plug on them. People get hurt, they’re going to need Rodon eventually this year.

If Rodon forces his way into the rotation and Danks and Noesi are serviceable MLB pitchers, how do you solve the logjam? Do you try to use Noesi as a swing man and spot starter to manage the workload of Rodon (or maybe even give Sale a day off here or there)?

James: I think it's just as likely you give Rodon a break as they manage him cautiously. But a hole in the rotation and need for a sixth starter is so inevitable I don't know why we even bother stressing it.

Remember when we resigned ourselves to the fact last year that Andre Rienzo was just going to be a regular rotation member for the foreseeable future? That was like May.

Nick: I am still rooting for Rienzo, even though he is no longer with the team, but I just don’t see how he gets major league hitters out from the rotation. Certainly not lefties.

But you’re right, even the 2005 White Sox - who had one of the most durable 5-man rotations for that season, like, ever - still needed a number of starts from McCarthy as the 6th starter. Incredibly I think only six pitchers started games for them last year. At the other end of the spectrum, the 2014 Texas Rangers had 15 (!!) pitchers start games for them. I don’t like thinking about any of the Front Three missing any time, so hopefully he’d be covering for Danks or Noesi.

What sort of innings load would you give to Rodon this year? I think between college and the ~12 innings he threw in pro ball he was up around 130-140 in 2014. Although I think the Verducci Rule is non-scientific and largely functions on cherry picking scenarios that confirm it and disregarding scenarios that defy it, would you hold Rodon below 200?

James: Man, I don’t like preimposed innings limits issued at the start of the season! I feel like there are more mild solutions, like only having Rodon start once per week, or a long rest for the All-Star break, kind like what Morosi suggested without the crackpot scheme to game his service time. Just a general understanding to stay light on the gas with him.

Ethan: IP is a question certainly that will come up down the road, especially if this team is in contention and Rodon throws in the upper 100s between AAA and MLB. It’s certainly a “we’ll cross this bridge when we get there” kind of thing, but I think how they did not shut down Sale in 2012 demonstrates how they’ll handle Rodon in such a scenario.

As far as a Rodon call up is concerned, I have little doubt that current Rodon, without a developed changeup, is a significantly better pitcher than Danks or Noesi. I think it’s worth working on, but if mid-May comes around and the change isn’t there, but Danks is trash and Noesi is scuffling, I don’t see how you keep Rodon down.

I also question who they choose to ditch for Rodon. I think Noesi is a legitimately better starter than Danks, but I also think Noesi’s stuff could play up in the pen, whereas Danks will eat innings as a No. 5 but will have virtually no use in the pen. I also don’t know how you handle a $14 million swingman in Danks. God damn shoulders, man.

White Sox Extend Adam Eaton Through 2019

During today's White Sox broadcast on CSN, General Manager Rick Hahn announced that the White Sox have agreed to terms on a five-year contract extension. According to CSN's Dan Hayes, is for $23.5 million dollars with club options for 2020 and 2021.

Eaton, who broke out last year with a .301/.362/.401 triple slash line and defense that warrant him being a finalist for a Gold Glove award, had been set to go to arbitration after the 2015 season and eligible for free agency after 2018. Eaton will now make $850K in 2015, $2.75 million in 2016, $4 million in 2017, $6 million in 2018 and $8.4 million in 2019. The White Sox hold options for $9.5 million and $10.5 million in 2020 and 2021, respectively, with a $1.5 million buyout for each year. 

The deal, above all, provides security for both sides. Eaton gets a pretty hefty guarantee of over $20 million, trading in maximal potential for earning for certainty. The Sox, on the other hand, get a true top-of-the-order hitter and above-average centerfielder for his prime years. 

While the Sox no longer have the ability to cut bait and/or win arbitration hearings to reduce Eaton's salary if he underperforms, if he simply holds his performance from 2014 for the majority of the deal, the deal will be well worth it for the club. Beyond the five year extension, the Sox also now hold two club options on Eaton, part of the reward for guaranteeing Eaton such a deal.

Eaton now joins Chris Sale, Jose Quintana, and Jose Abreu as a core of four* White Sox with contractual guarantees into the next decade. With some improvements and breakouts elsewhere on the roster, it will hopefully be a prosperous era on the South Side.

*notably, not the Core Four

Top Hitter/Pitcher Pairs in MLB, numbers 11-20

Numbers 21-30

Last week, I began of a three part series ranking the top pairs of position players and pitchers in all of baseball. Today’s installment features pairs 11-20, who are almost uniformly composed of awesome players. Unfortunately for these pairs, the top ten only has, well, ten slots, squeezing some fantastic players to the outside.

20. Philadelphia Phillies, Cole Hamels /Chase Utley:

There may not be any individual pair that has given more to the team they play for throughout their careers than these two. While Utley is certainly no longer the superstar he once was, he’s still a heckuva ballplayer, who is among the best second basemen in baseball when healthy. Hamels, on the other hand, is in the prime of his career, and probably one of the top ten pitchers in all of baseball. Your proposed package to pry him from the Phillies probably isn’t enough.

19. San Diego Padres, James Shields/Justin Upton:

The only pair on this list who are both newly minted acquisitions, Shields and Upton headline a massive haul of players acquired by the Padres this offseason. Whether or not it will be enough to turn a garbage team into legit contenders is still questionable, but this pair is certainly better than Andrew Cashner and (whoever the best Padres hitter last year was).

18. Texas Rangers, Derek Holland/Adrian Beltre

Just days ago, this pairing would’ve looked a lot better with a seemingly healthy Yu Darvish and the consistently amazing Beltre. Darvish, of course, has since succumbed to a torn UCL, and will miss the season, and while Adrian Beltre remains an absolute stud, Derek Holland isn’t good or consistent enough to be ranked as high. I hope Yu get well soon.

17. Oakland A’s Sonny Gray/Ben Zobrist: 

Another pair of fantastic players, one of whom is past his peak and the other possibly on the verge of a breakout. Zobrist has been an absolutely awesome player for the better part of a decade now, among the very best in the league since his massive 2009. He’s pushing 34 now, however, and his ability to put up elite numbers seems to be declining. Gray, on the other hand, may be on the cusp on stardom at the front of the A’s rotation. His 2014 was very good at the young age of 24, and more could be on the horizon.

16. Tampa Bay Rays, Alex Cobb/Evan Longoria:

The Rays rotation is fascinating in that it has many not-quite-ace pitchers who are very good nonetheless, making choosing Cobb difficult. A healthy Matt Moore might take this spot, and Chris Archer has a case of his own. On the position side, however, there really isn’t much of a debate. Beyond Longoria, there’s really no standouts whatsoever in the Rays’ positional depths

15. Toronto Blue Jays Mark Buehrle/Jose Bautista:

Another pair hampered quite a bit with injuries in the last week when Marcus Stroman saw his 2015 end prematurely with a torn ACL. Though Buehrle is not the pitcher he once was, he’s still good enough to have this pair ranked in the top half of the league when paired with the monstrous Jose Bautista. Since his breakout in 2010, only Joey Votto and Miguel Cabrera have had higher wRC+ than Bautista. He’s a destructive presence in the Jays lineup, and could be terrifying this year with both Edwin Encarnacion and Josh Donaldson in the same lineup.

14. St. Louis Cardinals, Adam Wainwright and Jason Heyward:

If you are the type who takes advanced defensive metrics at face value, this pair might belong in the top five. Obviously, I don’t. I think Jason Heyward is an awesome player, but not quite what WAR totals including +30 run defensive components say. If he hits his offensive ceiling, this pairing is fearsome, instead of just very good as it is now.

13. Cincinnati Reds, Johnny Cueto/Joey Votto:

In most years, Jonny Cueto’s 2014 season would have been a no-brainer Cy Young award winner. Obviously, 2014 wasn’t any other season, and the guy who made it that way is still yet to come, but Cueto is still a devastating pitcher. If I were more confident a 31 year old Joey Votto coming off injury is the player he once was, this may be a top five pair itself.

12. Chicago Cubs, Jon Lester/Anthony Rizzo:

One of two Chicago teams with a left-handed starter, slugging first basemen combo on this list, and by a bit the lesser. That’s not to take away from this pair, both of whom are awesome players. Both these players are awesome to watch, and incredible stories having overcome cancer to flirt with superstardom. When the Cubs emerge as a playoff contender, these two will assuredly be major reasons why.

11.  Pittsburgh Pirates, Gerrit Cole/Andrew McCutchen:

By some coincidence, this is the fourth consecutive NL Central team in these rankings, and (in my opinion) the best of the bunch. I’m not quite yet sold on Cole as an ace, but he’s a really solid pitcher who is more than enough to complement Andrew McCutchen, who may be MLB’s crown jewel right now. Players with such a combination of skill, charisma, and production are quite the rarity.