About that rotation problem...

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It’s pitching depth week at The Catbird Seat! In consecutive days you’ve had Ethan and Nick explaining the problem that is the White Sox rotational depth. To keep with the trend, let’s continue addressing that, but let’s also use a different approach. Though the Sox rotation is certainly not strong front to back, it is not ill equipped to enter a season representing a playoff hopeful.

Depending on how you feel about acknowledging Wild Card losers, 2014 saw 10 teams make the playoffs. That statement alone builds an argument that if a third of the league makes the playoffs, everybody can’t have a full slate of dominating pitchers. There just aren’t that many in existence. But looking at the pitchers that do exist and that pitched for playoff teams last season, we find that there are plenty that fall below the mark. There’s a saying that there’s no such thing as a fifth starter. Indicating that whoever is slated to be a team’s fifth starter is rarely able to continue being as much over the course of an entire season.

No playoff team managed to let less than 6 pitchers make at least 5 starts. The Royals came close, with only 6 pitchers carrying that starting workload and the correct guy made the fewest starts (an abysmal Bruce Chen at 54 ERA+). The Orioles came even closer. The worst of their 6 guys meeting the 5-start threshold was Ubaldo Jimenez, who produced an 80 ERA+). But the point holds. It takes a lot of pitchers to get through a season. Your fifth starter stands a good chance of getting hurt, because there’s already a good chance he’s a reclamation project you don’t want to ask too much of. Even more likely, your fifth starter sucks. He’s not even supposed to be a starter, and after a handful of starts showing that to be the truth he’s not going to be one anymore. Then the next fifth starter that’s probably not good enough will roll in, and so on and so on. It doesn’t matter if your team is good or if your team is bad. You don’t have a fifth starter that’s going to remain the fifth starter. It’s a rare occurrence.

The 10 playoff teams and their starters that failed to finish with an ERA+ of 90 or higher, indicating a fairly reasonable proximity to being league average or better:

Pittsburgh Pirates

Pitchers to start 5 or more games: 8

Pitchers with 5+ starts & ERA+ under 90: Brandon Cumpton (10 starts, 73 ERA+); Wandy Rodriquez (6 starts, 53 ERA+)

Oakland Athletics

Pitchers to start 5 or more games: 9

Pitchers with 5+ starts & ERA+ under 90: Jason Hammel (12 starts, 88 ERA+); Dan Straily (7 starts; 76 ERA+)

Washington Nationals

Pitchers to start 5 or more games: 7

Pitchers with 5+ starts & ERA+ under 90: Taylor Jordan (5 starts, 68 ERA+)

Detroit Tigers

Pitchers to start 5 or more games: 8

Pitchers with 5+ starts & ERA+ under 90: Justin Verlander (32 starts, 88 ERA+); Robbie Ray (6 starts, 49 ERA+)

St. Louis Cardinals

Pitchers to start 5 or more games: 10

Pitchers with 5+ starts & ERA+ under 90: John Lackey (10 starts, 86 ERA+); Joe Kelly (7 starts, 85 ERA+); Justin Masterson (6 starts, 53 ERA+); Marco Gonzales (5 starts, 89 ERA+)

Anaheim Angels

Pitchers to start 5 or more games: 7

Pitchers with 5+ starts & ERA+ under 90: CJ Wilson (31 starts, 81 ERA+); Tyler Skaggs (18 starts, 85 ERA+)

Los Angeles Dodgers

Pitchers to start 5 or more games: 7

Pitchers with 5+ starts & ERA+ under 90: Dan Haren (32 starts, 87 ERA+); Roberto Hernandez (9 starts,  74 ERA+); Paul Maholm (8 starts, 72 ERA+)

Baltimore Orioles

Pitchers to start 5 or more games: 6

Pitchers with 5+ starts & ERA+ under 90: Ubaldo Jimenez (22 starts, 80 ERA+)

Kansas City Royals

Pitchers to start 5 or more games: 6

Pitchers with 5+ starts & ERA+ under 90: Bruce Chen (7 starts, 54 ERA+)

San Francisco Giants

Pitchers to start 5 or more games: 7

Pitchers with 5+ starts & ERA+ under 90: Ryan Vogelsong (32 starts, 87 ERA+); Tim Lincecum (26 starts, 74 ERA+); Matt Cain (15 starts, 84 ERA+)

In contrast, the 2014 White Sox put 8 guys out there for more than 5 starts and more of them finished with an ERA+ number under 90 than above. John Danks and Hector Noesi, the holdovers that failed to get on top of the league average number, missed so by, well less than a ton. Danks had an ERA+ of 82 and Noesi finished the season with an 88 mark, and every playoff team had a pitcher take up a bunch of starts that was worse than Danks and Noesi. When you toss in Jeff Samardzija and the possibility of finding out what Carlos Rodon can do, I don’t know, seems encouraging enough to me.

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