We have been fortunate enough to have the excellent Paul Boye contribute to the site before, and this will be the first of three pieces where he and I give a rough look at how we see the six divisions shaking out in 2016. Obviously, there are still some free agents out there that could alter the calculus slightly, but with battery mates already stretching out in Arizona and Florida, we could wait no longer.
Read More
PECOTA was released this morning and you can look at the Depth Charts over here. Compared to the exuberant projection of 92 wins for Cleveland (tied with the Cubs for second in all of baseball!) and the dour expectation for the defending champion Royals (76 wins- the same as the 2015 White Sox!), 82 wins for Chicago looks sober, rational, and normal.
Read MoreCat Garcia was reporting from SoxFest all weekend. Her first article for The Catbird Seat is a recap of Rick Hahn and Robin Ventura's comments on the state of the White Sox. Follow her on Twitter @TheBaseballGirl.
Read More
One benefit of the outfield market moving like a particularly unmotivated glacier is that by the time the gut-punching news hit of Justin Upton coming to the AL Central for the perpetually spending Tigers, all hope of the White Sox actually reaching out and signing the best free agent hitter left on the market had all but evaporated.
Read MoreThe White Sox have acquired third baseman and potential pyromaniac Brett Lawrie from the Oakland Athletics for minor league pitchers J.B. Wenkeldon and Zack Erwin. Lawrie, who hit .260/.299/.407 (94 wRC+) in 602 PAs with Oakland last year, looks to slot in the White Sox as-good-as vacant 3B hole, hopefully solidifying a position that has been in flummox for the last decade.
Read MoreIn recent years, the Winter Meetings have been a time of much activity for the White Sox, especially since Rick Hahn filled the GM seat. In the last tow years, Hahn has acquired Adam Eaton, Jeff Samardjiza, Melky Cabrera, and David Robertson all during baseball’s annual December assembly, moves that have been, for better or worse, some of the most consequential of the Hahn regime. What the White Sox plan to do at this year's Winter Meetings seems to be completely up in the air.
Read MoreFor the majority of the life of the AL Central it has been a bit of a punching bag for the AL West and AL East. The Red Sox and Yankees were dominant for years, leveraging their massive resources and cagey front offices into 90+ win seasons like clockwork. The Angels, too, gradually morphed into a perennial contender shaped by massive payrolls. Then all it took was particularly savvy front offices for teams like Texas, Oakland, and Tampa Bay and all of a sudden you had 40-50% of the AL as strong teams, none of which were in the Central. As many observed coming into this season, however, the landscape of the American League looks very different - in the preseason, there weren't any readily identifiable "dominant" teams. Uncertainty about which .500-ish looking teams would hit their upsides or disappoint made it unclear as to whether any division would stand out as good or bad. So far, though, the AL Central has been the best division in the league.
Read MoreAfter an absolute nightmare 0-5 week, the White Sox entered this week's Detroit series staring down the possibility of a crippling early deficit in the AL Central. They managed to look much more professional and competent in taking 2/3 from one of their recent nemeses. One victory was just a solid, standard win, backing a strong Samardzija start with a credible amount of runs, while another was a glorious comeback-walkoff variety. Very heartening. Here's a few thoughts based on the series - obvious caveat that we are only talking about three games here:
Read MoreOne of the most common refrains whenever we start to get worked up over something that happens this time of year is "it's only April."
While that, as well as everything you can say about the small sample size these results are a product of remain true, the wins and losses, as you very well know, count just as much as the wins and losses in August and September.
I bring this up because the White Sox are in the midst of a season-opening stretch that sees them play 25 of their first 28 games against AL Central opponents.
Read MoreHeading into the 2015 regular season, it seems that most every American League team fancies themselves as a contender. As I’ve talked about earlier, this center-heavy distribution of talent should have interesting implications on the playoff race. This post is not about that. This post is me being a mean person who sees the flaws in everything. This post is about how every team in the American League will finish below .500, mathematical impossibilities be damned*.
Read MoreBaseball fans have a lot of projections at their disposal - PECOTA, Zips, Steamer, Cairo, etc. etc. One projection system is sometimes overlooked in certain circles, and I suspect because people view it as having a different purpose than projection - Vegas Lines. People think Vegas Lines are just trying to exploit the perceptions of casual fans. But, because of how Vegas makes a profit - trying to get equal action on both sides of the line and simply taking a cut off the top - the market can "correct" lines until you get a sort of Wisdom of the Crowds result with the input of some very knowledgable people. Depending on the year, you can get different results - but in short, Over / Unders from Vegas are a worthwhile resource when trying to figure out what will happen in the coming year.
Read MoreAs Rick Hahn pointed out, the most important thing to take away from the various AL Central projections is that it's probably going to be a tight race. Sure, if you take two teams with "true" 81-win talent, give one good luck and the other bad they may wind up very far apart. But right now we don't know where that luck is going to fall, and most projection systems seem to think that the Indians, Tigers, White Sox, and Royals are pretty close in terms of present talent. Over the course of 162 games, injuries will likely play a huge role in differentiating between these four teams. While there are certain things teams can do to mitigate against injury - Herm Schneider is considered one of the best in the business at doing just that - the best thing a front office can do is prepare as many Plan Bs as possible in the form of depth. So which organization is in the best shape in terms of backup plans should Plan A go awry?
Read MoreFor the second time in four years, a very superb and proud athlete suffered a most unfortunate knee injury during his pre-season workouts.
Read MoreI always dreamed that a post like this would be written about Justin Verlander, after he had been sent off to slaughter a distant alien race on behalf of all humanity, but the wrath of God Detroit starting pitcher has left the division, and it’s that homer-prone fastball-slider guy with platoon issues from a few years back. Max Scherzer has signed with Washington for all the money in the world. Detroit still boasts David Price, Anibal Sanchez, and a possibly resilient Verlander, but have now lost two of their three-most productive arms from last season with Rick Porcello already off to Boston.
Read MoreA starting rotation of Sale-Samardzija-Quintana-Danks-Noesi is rather hilarious in its division between strengths and weaknesses. Pros: Sale, Samardzija, Quintana. Cons: Danks, Noesi. Given that the team didn't give up too many future resources this offseason - a second and third round pick for Melky and David Robertson, and the useful, cost-controlled fringe starters / bench players surrendered in exchange for Samardzija - normally I would say they can just keep riding out the upswing and roll with what they have. But, their main acquisition this offseason - Shark - will only be here for 2015, and it doesn't make sense to add him and other guys like Melky, Robertson, LaRoche, Duke, etc. etc. only to hamstring your chances at competing by leaning heavily on Danks and Noesi.
Read MoreIn the offseason after the 2013 season, we saw two Scott Boras clients - Stephen Drew and Kendrys Morales - turn down qualifying offers and play hardball for a long term contract for big dollars, only to have it blow up in their face. Each wound up taking a 1-year deal worth less than the QO after the season started, and then posted abysmal numbers. Boras made himself the biggest agent in sports in part because he knew that if he stuck by his demands for his players, one team would blink and come up with the money. But with these two players, the strategy didn't work out at all. Jon Lester has signed with the Cubs for 6-years, $155 million, while the number being floated as Scherzer's demand was $200 million. Is anybody actually going to come close to that number?
Read MoreDespite the fact that the Royals squeaked past Oakland in the Wild Card game and then rode their elite bullpen into the World Series, the 2014 Tigers were objectively the best team in the division. Detroit would win the division and boasted a run differential of +52 as opposed to Kansas City's +27. In fact, they have won the AL Central every year since 2010. Their core has gotten older and slipped some, Dombrowski finally messed up a major trade last offseason, and the window looks like it may be closing. But, like the White Sox, they have had a very busy winter so far. How do they look at the moment?
Read MoreLecturing fans about fan practice has always gone well and left the writer feeling like they used their time wisely, so here goes.
Read MoreI cannot imagine what possible inspiration there would be to discuss anything besides the excellent, excellent MLB postseason to date, and since I cannot imagine it, it's a major hindrance to writing about it. The AL Central results in the playoffs so far have been rather extreme, and discussing the fallout can only be fun.
Read MoreThe Catbird Seat is a White Sox blog by White Sox fans that focuses on intelligent and humorous baseball commentary. Brought to you by ESPN's SweetSpot Network.
An ESPN SweetSpot blog | Design by ofvoid
