A sad look back at our preseason predictions
/Let me take you back to a simpler time. A more optimistic time.
That time is seven months ago, March of this year, when dreams of playoff races danced in our heads. There were dreams of Avisail Garcia: Future Superstar and Jeff Samardzija: Bonified Ace floating around our naive little heads as we moved slowly through the Spring and into a summer ripe with expectations of competent White Sox baseball for the first time in too many moons.
During this innocent month of our lives, the staff of The Catbird Seat tried to predict the success or failures of the White Sox using over/unders devised by yours truly. Some (OK, most) of these numbers will look foolish in hindsight. But we are nothing if not accountable for our actions. Tread lightly, and weep at the wreckage that is a look back at our 2015 White Sox Predictions.
2015 Win Total — Over/Under 81.5
Result
Under (76)
TCS Predictions
All five of the staff — James Fegan, Matt Adams, Nick Schaefer, Collin Whitchurch and Ethan Spalding — picked the over.
Sad preseason comment
Matt Adams: Over. I'm not expecting a runaway winner, but if this team doesn't finish above .500 we've got problems.
Jose Abreu — Over/Under 33.5 home runs
Result
Under (30)
TCS Predictions
Four of the five predicted the over, with your humble author being the only outlier. (I'm a genius!)
Sad preseason comment
This prediction wasn't terribly off, and although four of us got it wrong, most acknowledged that he would be right around this mark. But I've got to pick on someone, so...
Ethan Spalding: Over. I think the power outage late last year was part mirage, part lack of body readiness (to no fault of Abreu's) for the grind of a full season. I'm saying around 40 homers this year.
Jose Abreu — Over/Under .950 OPS
Result
Under (.850)
TCS Predictions
Out confidence in Abreu's power spilled over to this category, as well. Nick was the only one to pick the under.
Sad preseason comments
Collin Whitchurch: Over. Just because I don't think he's going to hit a bajillion home runs doesn't mean I don't believe he's going to destroy the world.
Ethan Spalding: Over. I also think Abreu is a better average hitter than he was when he was on his dinger binge. I think he's in for an absolutely monster year that will steal MVP votes from Trout, even if he's not the more valuable player.
Adam Eaton — Over/Under 19.5 stolen bases
Result
Under (18)
TCS Predictions
All five of us picked the over. Hey, at least we were close!
Sad preseason comment
I'm sorry to keep picking on you, Ethan, but...
Ethan Spalding: Over. The Vince Coleman hype seems real, and Eaton is too fast and too smart a ballplayer to be as poor a base stealer as he was last year. I say somewhere in the mid-20s.
Gordon Beckham — Over/Under 200 plate appearances
Result
Over (237)
TCS Predictions
We were pretty split on this, with Matt and Collin optimistically picking the under, while James, Nick and Ethan knew better.
Sad preseason comments
James Fegan: Over. This is the saddest over. There are too many potential sinkholes that could open up for him to fill.
Nick Schaefer: Over. Much to my chagrin. And how many infield pop-ups per 100 PAs? 20? 30?
Conor Gillaspie — Over/Under 100 plate appearances vs. lefties
Result
Under (16)
TCS Predictions
Collin and James picked the over for some stupid reason. A measly 16 is very smart by both the White Sox and Angels. Actually, that's still too many.
Sad preseason comments
James Fegan: Over. There's no reason at all for him to be over! He will be over.
Tyler Flowers — Over/Under .300 OBP
Result
Under (.295)
TCS Predictions
This was a lot closer than you might have thought! Considering Flowers has NEVER had a season where he OBP'd .300. An optimistic Matt and Collin picked the over. James, Nick and Ethan were smart.
Sad preseason comments
Matt Adams: Over. In Tyler Flowers' breakout year he bats .260 and OBPs at .310. And we're all happy.
Avisail Garcia —Over/Under .735 OPS
Result
Under (.675)
TCS Predictions
This is the saddest result. Collin and James picked the under. He was way under.
Sad preseason comment
Nick Schaefer: Over. But not by much. I know that Avisail has often been presented as a boom or bust prospect, but I've been increasingly thinking he's just an average player who hangs out with an OPS in the mid to high 700s for a while while playing okay defense in the corner. (ed. note: It turns out even Nick's reasonable take was FAR too optimistic!)
Jeff Samardzija — Over/Under 205.5 strikeouts
Result
Under (163)
TCS Predictions
No, maybe this is the saddest result. Although only Matt was foolish enough to pick the over.
Sad preseason comment
Matt Adams: Over. Just gonna assume that the Samardzija of the last two years is the real one because that's how I get to sleep at night.
Chris Sale — Over/Under 2.50 ERA
Result
Over (3.41)
TCS Predictions
OK, we all know Sale was still awesome this year despite some confusing results at times. James and Ethan both took the over. There were no unreasonable takes about him.
Chris Sale — Over/Under 26.5 starts
Result
Over (31)
TCS Predictions
Hey, a positive result! Despite his early DL stint, Sale was healthy all season. Only Nick picked the under. There were no sad predictions about this, either.
Jose Quintana — Over/Under 199.5 innings pitched
Result
Over (206.1)
TCS Predictions
James and Ethan both said under and were wrong after Quintana continued to be awesome and set a career high in innings pitched. Some of these over/unders AREN'T depressing in hindsight!
David Robertson — Over/Under 34.5 saves
Result
Under (34)
TCS Predictions
Holy crap this one was close! Only Collin picked the under because he is a genius.
Sad preseason comment
Nothing too bad here but there's this to depress you at least a little bit:
Matt Adams: Over. This team should win games, and Robertson should stay healthy.
Carlos Rodon — Over/Under 49.5 innings pitched in the majors
Result
Over (139.1)
TCS Predictions
This number was laughable in hindsight after Rodon spent a majority of the year in the majors. Only Collin picked the under because he is an idiot.
Sad preseason comment
Collin Whitchurch: Under. For no other reason than I expect the White Sox to torture us and not call him up until September for whatever reason.
John Danks — Over/Under 4.50 ERA
Result
Over (4.71)
TCS Predictions
This was probably a lot closer than it should have been! Collin was the only one to that the under because he's apparently just a stupid contrarian.
Sad preseason comment
James Fegan: Over. Stop making me write about this tragedy, man.
Bullpen — Over/Under 3.58 ERA
Result
Over (3.67)
TCS Predictions
Another closer one. The White Sox actually ranked 15th in MLB in bullpen ERA, which is still a great improvement on 2014. The league average was 3.71. James, Nick and Ethan were correct in picking the over.
Not-so-sad preseason prediction
Nick Schaefer: Over. I think the bullpen will be better, but I think it's still over. I'm not sold on Dan Jennings, and as much as I love Zach Putnam and Jake Petricka I don't think their ERAs are as pretty next season. Duke should be good, but I don't know if he's lights out like last year.